The top risk that emerges from this survey is that of crime, particularly penetration by cybercriminals out to take advantage of new procedures that might not be as deeply bedded down as those before.

A risk manager at a French financial services firm told the survey: “With controls under severe pressure to deal with issues triggered by Covid (eg IT infrastructure, remote working, encryption, e-signature), and looser lending standards intended to save small businesses, criminals have many more opportunities to find gaps.” The proliferation of government loan support programmes in 2020 may also open the door to more fraud.

This turns the focus onto another set of risks linked to banks’ survival prospects in this changing world. These include technology risk and strategic risks, such as the suitability of banks’ business models and cultures. Here, respondents were divided between those who thought Covid could bring about the demise of big banks, and those who believed they had the strength and will to adapt, as they seemed to be doing already in their response to the virus threat.

On the credit front, a particularly rough time is expected when government support for business loans expires and banks have to decide which loans to try to recover and which to renew.

Some respondents thought this would present the banks with a welcome opportunity to salvage their tattered reputations. Unlike the Global Financial Crisis of 2008, banks could come out of Covid as the good guys who saved the world, but this would also require them to be seen to be treating hardpressed borrowers with fairness and understanding.

Reputation risk emerged as No. 9 in the rankings. This was alongside sustainability risk at No. 10 where banks are not seen to be taking environmental, social and corporate governance (ESG) issues seriously, risking public opprobrium and financial loss if climate change, for example, leads to a revaluation of financial assets.

Other rising concerns have to do with the strength of management and governance in banks. The worry is that banks have become so big and complex that they defy control, particularly when it comes to managing risk.

Questions remain about the quality of risk management, whether it is too mechanical and whether it gets enough attention. One respondent to the survey said: “No aspect of the events that took place in 2020 is factored into the typical risk management model.”

Is this risk likely to get worse as the banks’ relationship with customers becomes more impersonal? If so, what will be the consequences for customer loyalty and business retention?

There were also wide differences of opinion over some risks. Bankers, for example, thought regulation was a much higher risk (11) than non-bankers (17) – the difference attributable to the fact that bankers always believe themselves to be over-regulated, while non-bankers think that banks should be kept on a tight rein to prevent trouble. Conversely, observers saw the vexed issue of management incentives posing a greater risk (12) than bankers (20), possibly an unsettling sign that bankers have not yet come to terms with non-banker unhappiness with generous pay packages.

More than 150 respondents took part in the survey, with a fairly even division between financial practitioners and observers. They included several bank supervisors and regulators who commented on condition that they not be identified. The respondents came from 11 countries, including the UK, the US, leading European countries and Japan.